Folding Two Pair Against An “Obvious” Set?

Good morning, how are we doing today? My name is james sweeney, aka, split suit. Welcome back to another video! Today i’m joined by chris warren chris. How you doing today, i’m, doing real. Well, how are you doing james excellent? No complaints in the slightest today i want to go through a hand with you.

This was recently showed in the redshift discord and it’s, a spot with top two and just kind of seeing if we can get away from it. So you’re ready to rock and roll with it. Yeah let’s. Do it all right? So here’s, the spot have ace queen plane.

Two five: there’s, a raise from the hijack and hero decides to call and pausing here for a moment in the chat, snowino said that mp2 is kind of an asian woman in her 30s has some tattoos and is considered a tag.

Reg good information for us to know so in this exact situation, oh and one other factor is that the blinds are pre-folding. So taking that to me that they are kind of folding out of turn have made it totally clear that they weren’t interested in 20 and probably wouldn’t be interested if you decided to three bet here so with that being Said let’s start with the pre-flop inflection point.

Do you like calling here or do you prefer three betting here yeah it’s, real interesting with the variables that we have so i’ll, just go and say my default at two five. So i have a tag opening and i have position i mean three betting is just so insanely appealing because they just don ‘

T forbid enough right so getting to play a larger pot in position, especially with a strongholding like ace queen. It’s, not a balanced play. Really it’s, just a i see so few ways for this to go wrong.

I lean towards three betting is calling okay, i think. Theoretically, it’s. Fine, if you really want to take a balanced, gto approach, the issue is that it’s like a little bit more complicated to have a balanced, calling range in this type of situation, and i think most live players default to calling far too often And all those factors tend to push me towards just recommending through bidding here that’s fair enough, i’m kind of in the boat of i’m, not gonna fault.

Someone for calling this i mean. Obviously i’m, never folding here, i think calling is kind of the more comfortable option that most players tend to go with. I agree with you. I think there’s, some extra validity to three betting and just watching like kind of tag regs in general, just don’t, tend to respond all that great against three bets.

Anyway, most of them either are massively overfolding or massively over continuing, and hopefully you have some bit of info on that. If you don’t, probably time to start doing some more three betting and seeing how they react, you get some information quite quickly.

Uh but yeah, i think three minion is slightly better here, but again i’m, never shocked to see the call in this exact situation. I think again it is kind of the more comfortable option, but, as played we end up going heads up to it lines.

Fold end up flopping top two like we talked about and mp2 fires for 25 hero decides to raise to 65., so first thoughts here, yeah. So something that’s very important to know in this lot. This is the absolute first thing that i think about is who has the nut advantage here? Who has the range advantage and if we look at a pot where our opponent called are raised and we called and we look at a flop that has an ace queen immediately, we should know we don’t have aces and queens in our flat Call range, or we shouldn’t you you basically even on a gto approach, even like balanced approaches, you will never have a flat call range here with aces and queens.

The only way it would ever happen is, if you’re, making some very tricky play due to like expected, squeezing right and those are plays, that you need to have a very, very high degree of confidence in, and i think even then you typically Tend to use hand the more like ace king as a preference, so we really should hear for sure, because we know the blinds are pre-folding.

So like there’s, no way in hell, aces or queens are going to be in heroes. Pre-Flop range here, just no chance, yeah exactly so. This is an incredibly important part of this hand. When you look at an ace queen six rainbow flop, i mean there’s, just no way that you have a lot of strong hands here compared to your opponent.

You should be three betting. Your ace queens, a good percentage of the time that’s, going to trim you down even more and uh yeah. This is just a wild flop for your opponent in terms of strength, because of that the way we typically handle that situation is that we have to basically turn our entire range into just a call or fold range, and we shouldn’t really have Any raises so that i think, is from a balanced perspective.

It’s, just really clear-cut, that’s immediately. Where my mind goes, and i think that’s totally fair just you said it really really. Well, they’re thinking about who has nutted range advantage, and just it’s, so difficult for hero to have nuts i mean he can have asics suited and pocket sixes, but those are like the strongest combos in their range, whereas the Hijack can have all of pocket aces all the pocket queens all of ace, queen, probably also pocket sixes as well.

I would have to imagine this is just not looking great for us, so yeah, i think, taking the the call here make. Decisions on future streets makes a lot more sense. Rather than raising and again there’s, just not much.

That should really be not much of a raising range here. In the first place, i’m, not sure if you know off top of your head, but if, like we were running this through a solver and we didn’t run. This particular hand throw solver, but would there be like some percentage of raising? Do you think on this kind of board or like it would just take everything and shunt it into folded? Folder call in my experience.

This will be 100 call there will there will not be any raising option realistically, maybe a point one percent. Sometimes that happens, but i don’t think there would be uh pragmatically we wouldn’t want to do it for simplification reasons.

We would just say: well this tiny percentage, doesn’t matter. We’ll just make it make the default play. So then. The other question that we have to ask is like: okay: is there any exploitative value to raising? I think that’s, where it gets interesting that’s where it does get interesting, and i think because this flop has this dynamic, and i think this dynamic is so clear-cut, like even players who are not thinking on this level, will Tend to recognize it when forced to think about it when you raise them and um yeah, it could get weird.

If you raise someone, and for that reason i have to say i don’t hate it uh. Definitely the most defensible play is, of course call but like could you get someone to wig out if you raised them yeah like certainly possible? I, if i’m in uh, the mp2’s position, and someone raises me on this board.

I’m like excuse me. Excuse me, sir, what are you doing and um yeah? So how do you i mean i’m sure you would react to that. One too right. It’s, one like if you have that nugget of information on your opponent, you’re like okay.

I know i can kind of like jiggle that goofball switch. If i throw in some goofy little raise here – and i mean size-wise, this is just the whole thing is just hilarious right. It’s, just it doesn’t. Look, it just looks silly uh, but you have to know that your opponent is actually going to react to that silliness.

Otherwise, you’re, just kind of allowing them to play totally perfect, and you know what’s the worst hand. They continue with here, maybe kings, but like jack’s down that’s, all gonna go dump and you’re really doing this.

If i’m looking at this either to try to jiggle someone to do something really silly or because you’re, trying to just go like balls to the wall, value against like ace ten, a’s, jack ace king! That can’t find the full button yeah but like if i’m looking at that much trouble extracting from those hands by betting, the turn, if they check it’s like seems questionable, that’s exactly It right because it’s, a tag reg like i just i hear those two words together and i’m, like that person’s, not putting 100 bigs in with with ace king.

Even most the time here, like they’re, just gonna, like maybe call the rays and then probably check, call turn and then probably check panic against a big bet on the river, which means you probably have to go more small to medium.

On the river and it’s like you could imagine, you could have probably almost certainly got more value by calling here and letting them make more mistakes for more money with that hand yet along the rest of their range.

So i just don’t, see this. I mean without very specific, exploitative information. I don’t, see the rays here, really doing all that much yeah. I do i like the idea of playing around with it. Like i i imagine like you – and i were playing you see better into me on this board for some reason, i’ve, flattened ace queen against you, pre-flop that’s, really cool for me, because now i’m in A small percentage of my range can i just min, raise you on the flop and expect some wild stuff to happen.

I kind of like that. I do like it’s, but it really requires kind of like an advanced metagame of someone who’s. Gon na, like assume that you’re messing around and get really uncomfortable versus, like, i think, a standard tag.

Regular live game is going to be like oh, like they shouldn’t, be raising here a lot. I guess they’re, really strong, which is what you are, and so that’s, not a great. You need a bit of a leveling game for this to kind of play out.

Favorably, so default play definitely has to be flat call, but we did in fact uh raise here. So we ‘ Ll have to run with that a little bit uh. We did and the raising is not done on the street because we end up facing a three bet from the hijack up to 145 total getting a little better than three to one odds at this point, and i can’t ever find a fold.

So the only question for me is: do we call here or do we stuff it in? So what are you thinking of this stage in the game? Pretty much again, you know now we’re gonna have to lean, i think, even more heavily into the fact that, like we, shouldn’t be in here raising very often, and now we’re, getting just like good Odds to call we’re in position.

This is one of those situations where you would. I would call with like a lot of my gut shot hands, probably even just to like see if they at the turn and see what happens like you’re, getting odds on just seeing what happens in a sense and um yeah.

I’m, pretty much going to have to flat call my strong hands here as well. So i don’t, see any reason to ship it. There’s, no scare cards coming on the turn. Realistically, maybe the king would be like yeah like i mean it’s bad for us, but you know trying to think what would scare ace king, i guess a jack could be scary or 10 could be kind of scary.

It’s. There’s, just not a lot of bad cards that would sort of kill our actions so to speak. So yeah yeah, i’m in the same boat. I don’t, see stuff in it here, really doing anything other than just letting are there any goofball bluffs in the hijacks range? Why not give them a chance to barrel bomb it on the turn or something i think just calling here is just totally standard and make decisions on the turn and those decisions.

Pretty much don’t include trying to find a fold somewhere, and i think that considering those goof all bluffs it doesn’t seem that significant to most people when they look at this type of action. But now it actually becomes really really important, because this is a hand where all of a sudden, we’re dealing with well, what do they? What do they value raise you here with right, probably ace queen and aces and queens and sixes, and that sounds like a lot of hands when you actually look at the combos, because we block ace queen combos it’s like very, very few combos.

There’s. What uh four combinations of ace queen there’s, one combo, a nation of aces left. One combination of queens left. Three combination of sixes left so out of all the potential opening hands that this mp2 player has.

We are now left with something like you know, nine combinations or something if i counted correctly so those goofball bluffs, while they don’t, seem very significant. You know all out of all the hands she might have opened.

Now they’re. Going to start accounting for a huge percentage of her range theoretically right – maybe she never bluffs here, but if she does – and i think and this is why it’s – so important – i think for people to understand that small percentage things when you’re deep into a poker hand like this start to become very, very important.

Could your opponent really never bluff? Here? Are you sure 100 sure she’s, never bluffing here, just because she’s, a tag i will say over. My career i’ve, always experienced. I think i told story about this in the last podcast i’ve, always allowed more ability for my opponents to bluff than i think most people do and repeatedly over time.

I find that those crazy bluffs do show up from time to time. It is still, it is kind of a smaller percentage thing. That is true, but you just never know like the ability to say your opponent, wouldn’t bluff.

Here with, like king jack, five percent of the time you know jack ten, five percent of the time it’s. You know, other players are thinking players too. They are looking for these spots. People have you know, people are people, they’re, not totally disciplined, so that plays, and they just maybe want to come after you on a board that’s.

Really strong for them that’s, actually not the craziest idea. So um just remember saying that you just know that someone’s, not bluffing here is, is generally too crazy. Uh with such a strong hand, compared to like you’re at the absolute top of your range realistically uh, besides sixes and um yeah, those are kind of my thoughts on yeah.

I think that is 100, fair and yep here it does decide to call very happy about that. Turn is a five puts up the backdoor flush draw and hijack decides to continue this time for 275.. So before we talk about what hero did in this situation, what are your thoughts facing this bet? Pretty much uh, i would say, re-emphasizes the scenario we experienced with the three bet on the flop.

Basically, our opponent is telling us a. They are either very, very strong or b. They are, you know, really coming after you with a crazy bluff that’s about it. Right, like it’s, there’s, not like any draws that make sense to to push their equity um.

You know they could have picked it up on the turn now, but those would have been pretty crazy, bluffs on the flop. So you’re in the same situation. Really so yeah uh, you’re, basically in the same situation, and we’re in the same spot, where we’re dealing with a condensed part of our range and uh.

The poster, in this hand, was starting to question. Okay, well, do you know this is a tag like they’re, clearly, not bluffing. Very often here should i be starting to think about folding. So how do you think about folding here? James i mean you.

Don’t have a crowbar big enough to get me to fold this. It’s kind of my thought and it’s. Just one of those like the whole reason why we would raise the flop is because you think not whole, but there’s.

A good chunk of if you’re raising the flop it’s, because you think you’re, inducing some sort of mistake somewhere along the way they’re, going to make some pretty large mistakes against the Raise itself so we’ve kind of seen.

A bunch of action happen after that right. We saw that flop three bed. Now we’re, seeing a big barrel here so like i have to assume again. What went into my original raise is that there’s gonna be some goofy stuff happening here so to say: hey there should be some goofy stuff happening here, but then panic and say no, no! No! It’s.

Only the nuts. Now there’s, there’s, a mismatch somewhere along the way, and i think, going and changing your plan too. I’m, going to find a fold button here, especially on this card. Like i, just don’t, see it, and not even just this card like pretty much the entirety of the deck like there’s, just not a crowbar big enough for me to get away from this.

If they do happen to have the nuts or something close to it like again, that was baked into the equation it’s. Gon na happen some chunk of the time, but am i really really all of a sudden stone, confident that they only have sixes aces queens ace queen? I don’t.

I don’t think you can say that with all certainty based upon the reasoning that would probably go into the flop play and as such, i would just stick it in here. You know i always look at this and i’m.

Like well, could i call, but if i call i don’t really rep anything that’s, probably going to fold ever and i don ‘ T really think that they’re super incentivized to like throw in their last like what 130 ish on the river.

So if they’re going to make a mistake, it’s. You know i’m, going to try to max value against ace, king or maybe some sort of backdoor clubs that just picked up. Let’s, just get it all in now and be done with it.

There’s. Just really no river play anyway, whether we call or or shove in this spot, yeah 100 shove. For me on the turn as well, and the reasoning is like, like you said, um, if we’re st, if we’re getting stacked, we’re, getting it all in behind anyways, and so, if we want to get It all in a head and they want to chase their gut shot for their last hundred, which will happen um.

You know like yeah. We got a shove there and um yeah. I pretty much agree with you as well, like it’s just uh. I think you can understand why we wanted to flat call the flop and maybe think, when you’re in this situation, you’re, like i really don’t like the variables here where i’ve, created A very tight range for my opponent, and now they’re, showing strength and, against my very strong hand, and i don’t, feel good about it anymore.

This is part of the reason why we flat call on the flop and why that’s. The most defensible balanced play is because you know we just don’t want to put our tag opponents in situations where they will only continue with strong hands, because there’s, just a better way to handle any type of situation where We find ourselves in that spot.

Usually there’s, going to be a line that would have kept their range wider, giving us more uh flexibility and maneuverability with our ranges and ability to generate mistakes. I think so. It is very common to end up in this situation and have some regret um, and you know that’s.

Fine, like we have to learn from these situations. It’s like it’s, a pretty extreme flop, and so it makes sense that someone wouldn’t have like the understanding that we don’t raise that flop and just may have defaulted there.

So don’t beat yourself up about it. This is a great learning opportunity to to understand the dynamics on this type of flop and yeah. If you’re, really just playing that standard tag, you know flatting, the flop gives you so many options against their middle strength, hands, etc.

Does chris, like the crazy race play on the flop, if there can be a metagame there, yeah it’s, not it’s, not the wildest thing in the world, but when you do that or if you just find yourself having having Regret in these situations you know it’s, just one of those situations where it’s, uh time to make them show you the cards and if you get stacked, you get stacked correct, and i think you said it really well and Just like reiterate it there’s, a reason why you can raise the flop against me right, because you know that i’m, likely to kind of go goofy.

When that happens, i’m gonna look at this spot. The same way you look at this spot and we’re just gonna both giggle and just throw a bunch of weird money in there, whereas the normal tag reg, who has no creativity in their game, they’re, just going to Be super predictable and, as such, you’ve, completely condensed their range to like only the nuts you’ve nullified all the rest of their nonsense, not always, but to a super large degree.

And now you’re kind of walking back what went into the original flop. Raise so be very careful with that, and you know just always go back and recheck whether or not the line leading up to the big spots made sense and that’s.

Why you know having the conversation about three bending pre-fop is actually very important. Having the discussion about whether or not we raise the flop or not, is extremely important, rather than just focusing on those turn spots, because i think a lot of people only want to focus on the turn spot.

Should we fold at this point, because this is a big bet from a tag rag? Should we fold here? Well, we have to look at everything leading up to that point, because that’s. What’s going to impact whether or not that range is you know having enough bluffs in it or nowhere near enough bluffs? You got ta be really careful with that and kind of stay consistent throughout the hand when you’re thinking about the hand reading and the and the ranger assigning excellent.

So as played here, decides to mash it in totally happy, as played mp2 calls. Unfortunately, ends up having pocket sixes here ends up losing the pot is what it is, and i think this is one of those spots that gets asked about, because you know it sucks when we lose with top two and it’s like well.

Did i make a mistake here? Some spots are coolers and obviously the setup itself is pretty cooler and you’re, going to lose a big pot one way or the other. So don’t panic about that. Unless maybe you three bet yeah precisely post-flop has played like a lot of money is going in here, just is what it is, but yeah don’t beat yourself over up over that, but ask yourself: did you play well leading up to the big Spot three-betting, pre-fop very, very important yeah cause you’re right, sixes, probably go away when there’s, a three-bet like decent percentage chance.

If that’s, a good tag, i mean there’s. A lot of tags, we’ll call you there with it um, but this is actually one of the reasons i love three betting. These small sticks live games is that um, taking the balanced line in all these scenarios can be pretty challenging.

It’s, a difficult thing to do right, like just knowing that, like that you have the the nut disadvantage on this flop. That’s, a pretty advanced idea that i think a lot of people will be less comfortable navigating in on the fly in the moment.

You know, i think we can all like see it after the fact pretty. Obviously so because of that, when you take an approach where you lean on three betting, a bit more, what you’re doing, is you’re inflating the size of pot when you’re in position as well with strong Hands when you have a very tight range and the benefits of that are when this flop does come out.

Essentially, if your opponent called you with sixes it’s, probably a bit of a loose call from a gto perspective. Um also, if you have a skill advantage on them, playing sixes out of positions can be very, very difficult to do profitably and because that, if they do make that call essentially what’s happening? Is you’re, actually creating a negative, ev sort of lottery for them where it’s like okay? If you threw that and then like you have a strong hand and they had to end up hitting a set like, you do lose a big pot, but on average you will now be profiting and you’re doing so, and you’Re creating a bigger pot so like when you do get stacked.

It’s, actually not as big a deal. You’ll, be creating a bigger pot for you to just kind of pick up because they’re a tag and they’re, just plain real straightforward and you have a position that it ‘

Ll be easy to pick some some nice easy bluffs, you’ll, be able to show down your hand more often more frequently than you uh probably should. Otherwise, when you’re out of position, so you can just chuck down when your ace high is good and um.

You ‘ Ll have an easier time sniping their bluffs because you know they’ll. Basically, you’ll tend to have the the actual uh range cap, because you you threw that before the flop so uh there’s. Just so many favorable scenarios that actually make playing this as a three bit easier, which i think is the opposite – that most people think of they think.

Oh, i’m gonna call, and i’m gonna keep all the things on lockdown and control, but actually you create a bigger pot. You don’t have to deal with as much complexity, and, if you do that in position, it’s like you, get a bigger pot with more advantages in position and it’s simpler for you and it’s super complicated for your opponent to manage those are scenarios that i just personally love so uh, something to consider at small stakes.

This is something that i employ when i play two five and five ten, just lean on a three bet: heavy strategy, especially in position, especially against people who do not forget about you as a bluff, so yeah that’s.

My my pitch for three betting live lot. I like it and i especially think it’s, a fair point of they don’t forbid, very often like hardly ever. I mean tag rags and live games just in general doesn’t matter.

If it’s, one two, two five or five, ten like it, just doesn’t come in that much so what are they gonna? Do they’re gonna fly with all most of all their continuance? They’re gonna fold a lot, so you can just print money that way, or they call and again post-flop’s, not all that difficult.

So you know we’re, never comfortable playing ace queen in position post a lot exactly so people always panic about you know. Should i put ace queen, like the bottom of my three bet range or the top of my calling range and like i get the conversation but just think about in general, how your opponents are going to make the most amount of mistakes and are they playing really Well, in three bad pots, i don’t, think so chances are they aren’t chances? Are they aren’t exactly so yeah? I think this was uh.

This was a good one and i really appreciate snowing. Thank you for posting this in the discord chris any last minute, thoughts on this one. No, i think we covered it. I think we covered it too excellent.

So if you want to post your own hand, you can always do so in the discord that’s, discord to get in there immediately and post it either over on the side. You see, live hands or online hands or tournament hands, so post it and wherever it goes, and we look forward to you talking more poker with you over there.

If you need anything in the meantime, don’t hesitate to let us know otherwise, as always. Good luck out there and happy grinding

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