Poker Breakdown: Did This Massive Tell Cost This Guy Millions of Chips?

Raise it up to 550 000 files around to aha in the big blind between three diamonds electrical. This is a sizeable raise, though 2.75 big lines he looks like he does electrical.

These two players will see the flop two diamonds good plot for both players. Roster flops middle pair backdoor flush, draw my heart flops. The flush draw [ Music ] russell deciding how much to bet 450, so it’s.

450 450. may also, of course, believe his queen heim might be. Good turn is the ten of diamonds. Quite an action card, roster is improved to two pair queen high flush. It looks like ross is thinking about betting may.

Well, let’s check this. One back it doesn’t, really put the test holding two pair on the bubble. The opponent could easily have a flush, it does check. Turn goes check check, not necessarily a huge surprise, but definitely some interesting decisions here.

What do you think about? Ihar? Checking with the queen high flush, it feels like we’re gonna get a lot of check backs and that’s, exemplified by two pair checking back yeah. I mean you’re, getting almost all check backs.

I guess we can get some bets out of um, just air bluffs here that feel like. I can move you off at nine now right, but besides that i mean, i think this is a bet almost always with this hand. In this it is out of flow and people don’t like betting out of when they’re, not the aggressor.

On the turn it’s, not a common play, but it feels like the right play in this instance. It does like we want to go for a big pot here. We want to try and get it all right. We have a shot to get it off.

We bet the turn. If we check we’re, often not gonna it’s, often gonna go check, check. We’re gonna bet the river and hope to get called by an ace. A good ace is probably calling the turn anyway. If we bet right.

Sometimes we lose an ace here, but i think i think betting works so much better than checking there’s, a lot of bad cards that can come on the turn, specifically another diamond, which is just going to kill our action.

I’m, not really worried about losing. I’m, just worried about not getting action later anyway, yeah and uh. We think that rasta is probably an amateur is our best guess as the poker guys over here. Yes, so against a pro you’re gonna have to have a lot of nuance to your game.

You’re gonna have to check some of your queen high flushes, or else it’s. Just too obvious you’re, always betting, when you have a flush sure, but we think for practical purposes. It’s, probably better, just to bet here right yeah.

I think again. If you know you’re up against a true amateur, you should maybe bet a hundred percent of the time here with the queen high flush. Maybe don’t worry about it and let’s, get to the great evidence of why, with rasta checking back 910.

Is this the right play? It’s close, but i actually i like it. I think you are supposed to check here. We have better hands, we have a lot of better hands. Actually, a lot of the better hands are probably supposed to check too the better.

The ace is up. Probably some sets to check. We’re, just worried about getting value right like it’s going to go like if we bet we’re, going to get so many folds from the hands that are losing to us and, of course a hand like This is never going to freaking fold right, it might check raise us.

We don’t want to get blown off a really good hand. I think it’s very reasonable to check this. I think i’m checking this almost always in this. I do too, but it sucks, because you’re. You’re, so vulnerable.

There are so many bad cards. Any paint card could be bad along with, of course, more diamonds being bad. Also, the board pairing could be better if it isn’t. You know your full house or an could kill you yeah.

So it’s, just a it’s, just a crappy spot, but i think you do ultimately have to check yeah. We’re, also relatively short, and if we don’t have a clear plan for what we’re going to do. If we bet and get raised, we should probably check yeah, because we just don’t, have a lot of checking seems like the right place.

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He improves to a full house on the river running tents. I heart no way he can believe he’s beat here, expect him to make a chunky bet roster to move all in over the top start. The feature table for roster [ Music, ], 1.

35 million with his queen high flush roster, has less than a pot size raise left a bit of acting. So i look back at the cards and play with some more chips: horrible spot for ioha. Now the bet is for 3.

65 million more and he has an 8 million stack behind [ Applause ]. I think he will feel he’s, not really being any value hand here, if roster had turned the flush and likely a low flush that he may well have bet the turn with.

He were to call and lose he would drop down to under 30 big blinds and he’s made a fantastic fold there ihar with the correct fold of the flush there. I think there’s, potentially multiple factors that lead to this fold, but let’s, talk about what i think is more interesting and more fun, which is the tell we think we picked up a tell on rasta here yeah.

Luckily, for us, the camera people didn’t go to the flop they stuck with rosta, who is by the way in position second to act on the river. As the river came check, this out. Look at rosta as the river comes from stiffness to looking at his chips.

This is a tell of strength for sure he likes this card yeah, you know so sometimes people will reach for their chips to dissuade a bet right. This is different than that and there’s. A few reasons why i would say that number one and the most important reason is how quickly this happens.

The card comes out. He immediately turns, usually when people do this to dissuade especially amateurs. They wait till they know their opponent is looking at them yeah and that usually their opponent is even starting to consider it a bet they like take their chips out and then the other guy reaches for their chips.

Like i’m gonna call, you buddy and even sometimes put the chips out front as if they’re, going to ready to call that’s, a dissuading action. This is not. This is an immediate and also look at the turn.

Like the body turns towards the stack it’s, a it’s, a classic tell in live poker that if somebody just looks at their chips, when a card comes out, that usually means they like the card. Yes strength.

This is more than looking at the chips. This is going from stiff to loose from immobile to moving around touching the chips being nearer to the chips. This is a serious tell. I mean he really looks like he’s, about to grab a big stack and bet yeah, which is weird because it’s, not his turn to bet and it’s so instantaneous after the card comes out that it Doesn’t seem to be for anyone else’s, you know viewing pleasure and as we see his hand, we know that ‘

S got to be true, so maybe i heard didn’t pick up on this, but if i hard did pick up on that yeah, how do you proceed? Do you just not bet a flush? It feels kind of weird not to bet a flush. I think we still have to bet, and the main reason is this um.

If we check it’s almost impossible to fold to the bet right with a hand this good yeah. So i’d rather set the sizing myself. I can go for a lower sizing. If i check, and this guy has a monster, he might size it up really big and i might feel obligated to call.

But if i bet a third of the pot and he raises, then everything’s confirmed and i can just throw my hand away. So i, like betting about 800 000 here as ihar. I like that idea. However, if we know anything about rosten, we know enough about him to assume that this tell is super reliable yeah.

It came on the 10 pairing, meaning that it’s for sure a full house and not a flush yeah, and it’s not like he’s going to over value a worse hand. So maybe we should just check fold uh. Maybe now it’s possible that because it went check check and he does that – maybe he made trips before he sees this bed anyway and thinks like.

Oh, i just have the best that’s, true and then we but like, but when we and when we bet he’s, gonna call quickly and we get to win rather than now. He might have bet anyway, though, if we checked with his trips, so i don’t know if that would be a problem, but that would be the one thing right.

All of this, you probably shouldn’t. Take this to the bank and try to cash it. You know you should probably bet your flushes on this spot anyway and not tells aren’t super reliable. Historically, you know, so we think we picked this one up.

It’s, not a guarantee, but it feels like a tell and obviously the hand corresponds with it. I heart bets he doesn’t bet small. He maybe didn’t pick up on the tail. I like the sizing. Fine, if he didn’t pick up on the tail sure point three is trying to get called by something ace queen yeah sure.

Why not rosta, of course, moves in not a huge surprise, easy, easy decision from roster’s. Point of view, it should be an easy decision, if you saw the tell if you’re ihar, but let’s, pretend for a second that we didn’t, see the tell yeah.

How do we go about this decision with the flush? Well, this is a pretty good hand, but we actually have a lot of better hands. So if we’re going to use distribution, which is a reasonable thing to do um, we can be very aware that we have full houses here ourselves as ihear right, we’ve got forceful, we have ace ten, we have nine ten.

We have nine ten, so we have. We have a better flush. We have worse, flushes too yeah um we have. I guess we don’t, have that many other hands that we would bet. Then we actually don’t have any other hands because we don’t have trips, it’s, the 10 10 and one of them is a diamond.

So how do we get there right? We can ‘ T. Have trips so so the worst thing we’re betting for value is and really weird and a bad flush. It’s, a bad flash and we really don’t have any bluffs because the board was so.

It was ace, nine, four, two diamonds and the diamond came in. Like what hand are we bluffing? I mean if we’re kind of a maniac. We have three five or something i don’t know, i guess, but our opponent had like 28 blinds when he bet the fly yeah, it seems unlikely like where it should be check.

Raising that or folding so distribution says fold. I think it does. I think so you know what else does fold to me? Is our opponent’s story really makes sense for a full house the whole way through any full house.

That would be in ross’s range would have opened, pre-flop would have bet the flop. A lot of them would check the turn when the diamond comes even a set of aces. Would i think it’s? Probably the right play to check the set of faces, at least some of the time when the diamond that’s, one of the hands you could bet, but it’s.

Fine to check 910, of course did check, makes plenty of sense. Same thing would would go for a set of fours nines tens all of these things, so the story really adds up to a full house. Yeah plus you got to tell plus it’s, a big tournament right.

It’s. A 53 hundred euro buy-in there you go speak. I almost said something wrong and like an opponent who we may even know as an amateur at this point as as ihar. Maybe we don’t just raised all in on the river when we can have it yep.

That is almost always strength. Yeah, if you don’t, have a really good reason to call like this. Guy is crazy. This guy’s. Super bluffy i’ve. Seen this guy do crazy things. You should just fold like almost all your hands here and like know that you’re.

It’s. You’re, never good. That said, it is tougher to pull the trigger than it is to talk about it when folding a flush, and this is a good flash. This is really good, but ihar disciplined makes the right decision in the end, and it seems like everything points to this being the correct decision yeah like if, if we’re up against like a pro moving in on the river, i think we should Call i don’t know if that’s.

True, like i mean that’s, that’s. Another discussion i don’t, know kenny. If we’re up against brent kennedy against kennedy, yeah right, so, okay, the the really good pros anyway, they’re like really elite pros, but like the anyone who’s, an amateur or just an okay player like even A good player, usually they’re, just not bluffing this river as a raise all in so is interesting spots.

Here. Definitely some interesting spots. We mostly agreed with uh with each other grants. Right. Are you talking about ihar? You’re, trying to say iheart. No, no, we agree with each other um. We agree with actually all of ihar’s decisions as well, although we like the lead on the turn he didn’t.

Do that grant um. I guess we mostly didn’t dislike most of the decisions. Usually we have a problem with some decisions like we just think power should should leave the church. I have a problem with rasta giving away so much with the tell well that’s.

What happened that’s, fair um! But beyond that i mean that’s, not something that uh rasa like could contain. Apparently not so what do you guys think so? Do you think that there’s? Some uh obvious plays here that we’re missing.

Do you think that this is that ihar should play either turn or river differently? We actually think ir should play the turn differently, and just bet this almost always um. Do you think that this could be a call against more players? I brought up the idea of like against maybe certain elite pros like bring the bryn counties of the world.

This is a clear call. Um. Who else is this a call against in in these tournaments, like on a day one spot where they’re? Going all in for their life when they don’t have to uh. Do you do you know of anyone? Can you think of people, because i struggle to let us know in the comments also, do you think this is a real tell? I mean we’re claiming to to see this tell obviously the evidence bears it out because of the card, but you know that doesn’t mean we’re right.

Do you think this is an actual tell from rasta? It looks like it to me: what do you guys think seems like it to me too also check out our podcast. It’s where we come up with all of our ideas for all of these hands.

It’s also twice a week, rather than once it’s, the breakdown poker podcast with the poker guys it’s, great fun. It really is recommended for the whole family. Well, no, actually, you probably just need to know what just the adults, let your children listen to it.

Probably don’t. Do that probably don’t. Do that, but do buy this book? How can he fold incredible poker hands broken down decision by decision? It is our book. We wrote it 37 tournament hands it’s, a lot of fun, get the book.

 

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